Last week vs. spread: 3-1
Last week overall: 4-0
This week: No chance of matching last week
Baltimore Ravens (-4) over Indianapolis Colts
Dome teams are notoriously bad on the road in the playoffs and I don't see the Colts as a team to go against type, especially against a Ravens squad so perfectly set up to beat them up. Joseph Addai won't be able to run the ball and Marvin Harrison always disappears after one big hit (hello Ed Reed!).
If the Colts stack the line the way they did against Kansas City, the Ravens and QB Steve McNair will be smarter than the Chiefs and actually throw the ball downfield. Oh, and yes, Herm Edwards is the worst game coach in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints (-5) over Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles really couldn't afford to be missing cornerback Lito Sheppard in this game, not against such a powerful Saints offense. There's no way Philly's offense can keep up with the Saints now. This one could be ugly.
Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) over Chicago Bears
I'll take the Bears to win by three, but this one shouldn't be too high scoring because of the weather, which is expected to be pretty bad. The Seahawks should at least be able to keep it close.
Here's the big question with this game: Did Lovie Smith learn anything from last week? He was at the Colts-Chiefs game last week to watch his bodies Edwards and Tony Dungy square off. In that game, it was clear by the second quarter that Trent Green wasn't getting it done. Instead of pulling him for Damon Huard, Edwards stuck with Green and is at home this weekend. Now, Smith could be in the same situation with quarterback Rex Grossman, who has been awful of late. If Rex is terrible in the first half this week, will Smith pull him for Brian Griese? He should.
New England Patriots (+5) over San Diego Chargers
What a frickin' weekend this is in the NFL. All watchable games. I think this one goes one of two ways: The Pats manage some mistakes from SD QB Philip Rivers and pull ahead comfortably by the end of the third quarter or it's nip and tuck the whole way and the Chargers barely hold on for the one or three point win. Either way, I'll take the points. As for overall, give me the Pats by 10.